Red Bull is considers replacing Liam Lawson with Tsunoda

The second Red Bull seat alongside Max Verstappen has long been considered Formula 1's most challenging role.

Now, after just two races, speculation about replacing Liam Lawson has reached fever pitch following his unprecedented qualifying struggles.

Lawson's difficult start

Liam Lawson's full-time Red Bull campaign began with optimism but quickly deteriorated.

The New Zealander has qualified 18th, 20th and 20th in his three appearances, becoming the first Red Bull driver to start last on the grid in consecutive races.

His race results – a DNF followed by 14th and 12th-place finishes – have done little to ease mounting pressure.

Team Principal Christian Horner has carefully avoided guaranteeing Lawson's seat for the upcoming Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka.

"We have data from the first two races and we'll look carefully at that,"

Horner said after China.

"We have 400 engineers in the team and 600 sensors on the car, so we have a huge amount of information to go through."

When pressed about Lawson's future, Horner acknowledged the team's "responsibility" toward the driver while stopping short of a direct commitment.

Red Bull's dilemma appears to be balancing performance data against fairness – questioning whether two races provide sufficient opportunity to judge Lawson's potential.

Tsunoda's rising stock

If Red Bull opts for change, Yuki Tsunoda emerges as the obvious candidate.

The Japanese driver wasn't promoted over winter, but his recent performances have changed minds within the team hierarchy.

"Yuki is in the shape of his life,"

said Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko.

"He's a different Yuki now than in recent years. He changed management, he has a different approach and is more mature."

Tsunoda's Abu Dhabi test with Red Bull last year provides additional data for consideration.

"He did very well in that test with us,"

Horner confirmed.

"It's useful data for us, but we always look at the bigger picture."

However, promoting Tsunoda to the main team before his home race at Suzuka carries significant risk. If he struggles similarly to Lawson, it could damage his career momentum at a crucial moment.

The RB21's difficult nature

The fundamental issue may not be driver talent but the Red Bull car itself. The RB21 presents unique challenges for any driver paired with Verstappen.

First, Verstappen's exceptional pace makes the benchmark nearly impossible to match. Additionally, the car's characteristics – a sharp front end paired with a loose rear – are tailored to Verstappen's driving style, creating a machine that former Red Bull driver Alex Albon likened to "a computer mouse with sensitivity at 100%."

Since Daniel Ricciardo's departure in 2018, Pierre Gasly, Albon, Sergio Perez and now Lawson have all struggled alongside Verstappen.

The 2025 situation becomes even more complex with Red Bull's dominance fading, forcing the team to push technical boundaries further while competing in an increasingly tight field.

Potential ripple effects

If Red Bull proceeds with a driver change, the question becomes what happens to Lawson.

The most straightforward solution would be swapping him with Tsunoda at Racing Bulls, allowing Lawson to rebuild his confidence in a less demanding environment.

"Liam is a young guy. We've got a duty to look after him,"

Horner emphasized.

"He's still a very capable driver. We know that. We're just not seeing him able to deliver that at the moment."

More surprising is the emergence of Franco Colapinto as a potential candidate for Racing Bulls.

Spanish media reports suggest a deal could be close, with Marko spotted in Alpine's hospitality area during the Chinese Grand Prix weekend.

This possibility connects to Jack Doohan's improving performance at Alpine, potentially complicating driver market movements as teams evaluate mid-season adjustments.